Holdrege, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

741
FXUS63 KGLD 242312
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
512 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A widely scattered storm or two is possible this afternoon
  into the early evening.

- Fog is possible again tonight into Saturday morning. Be alert
  for patches of dense fog.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of Northwest Kansas and
  Southwest Nebraska Saturday through Monday. High temperatures
  are forecast to be in the low to mid 100s with heat index
  values in the mid 100s. Limit time outdoors and stay hydrated
  including humans and livestock.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

High pressure is starting to build and expand across the
western CONUS. At the surface a developing low is seen on RAP
Analysis across southeast Colorado. This may be the focus for a
rogue afternoon storm or two this afternoon across southern
portions of the forecast area. Severe weather would be unlikely
but a wet microburst could not be completely ruled out with
surface based CAPE around 3500-4000 j/kg, high DCAPE in excess
of 1500 j/kg and weak shear and steering flow along with high
PWATS of 1.5-1.6. HRRR, NAM and RAP all show a Theta E boundary
which looks to be roughly in the vicinity of where some guidance
is showing some potential storm initiation so have opted to
introduce a 15-20% chance of storms into the forecast for a few
hours late this afternoon. Guidance has come in a bit warmer
than previously forecasted on temperatures for today so have
increased temperatures a few degrees into the mid to upper 90s.
Moist air remain across most of NW Kansas and SW Nebraska so do
have some concerns about heat indices reaching the mid 100s but
should remain rather short lived and spotty in nature so will
not plan to chase with a heat advisory. Light winds of 5-10 mph
through the day will also provide little relief from the heat.
Little relief in temperatures is forecast overnight as well
with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Easterly winds
are forecast to remain in place overnight. Am seeing some hint
of more food potential across Red Willow, Decatur, Norton and
Graham counties. Dense fog could again be a concern as well as
nearly all guidance has high surface to 1km AGL Mixing Ratios.

Saturday and Sunday, heat will be the main story. Ridging and high
pressure continues to strengthen across the Rockies. 594 dam
also expands on top of the area which increases confidence in
widespread triple digits with the warmest being on Sunday as
the center of the high is forecast to be directly over the area
and even some guidance suggesting a stronger high pressure. Do
have some concerns that our current forecast dew points may be a
little on the high side as surface to 30mb AGL mixing dew
points are around 10 degrees lower which with deep mixing in
place in this set up does seem reasonable. However we do
continue with our southeast winds on Saturday which could help
keep dew points a little higher than what is being suggested.
Sunday our 850mb winds turn more to the southwest which does
favor the potential for the warmest temperatures of this time
period. Mixing dew points are also a little higher than on
Saturday as well. This does raise my concern for heat indices
around 105+ degrees for all of NW Kansas as well as SW Nebraska.
High to extreme values of Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures along
with a large area of high NWS Heat Risk values does bring
concern as well for heat related impacts especially over
multiple days. With county fair season upon us and referencing
the Kansas Mesonet Animal Comfort Index, those values do get
solidly into the Heat Danger Range as well. Due to this and
newest data giving heat indices around 105 degrees across
Greeley and Wichita counties have expanded the Heat Advisory
across the rest of NW Kansas. Low temperatures during this time
frame provide minimal relief as well with temperatures in the
mid 60s to mid 70s. Far eastern portions of the forecast area
may even struggle to fall below 80 degrees for a low temperature
as well.

As mentioned above with the potential for lower dew points there
is concern for elevated fire weather conditions as winds are
forecast to be sustained around 15-20 mph from the southeast for
multiple hours during the afternoon. If the dew points can become
as low as what the NAM and RAP mixing dew points suggest then
briefly critical fire weather conditions could become possible
for those along and west of Highway 27. Confidence for this
scenario is only around 20-30% at this time.

Precipation chances for this weekend are pretty slim. Sunday
does catch my eye some as 500 and 700mb vorticity moves through
the area during the afternoon hours. This may be enough for some
pop up afternoon storms but with continued weak flow and
subsidence from the high pressure, should any storms develop
they should be relatively short lived. If storms could persist a
bit longer especially across eastern Colorado on Sunday
evening, then they could have the potential to last through the
night as the low level jet increases. Will keep the forecast
dry for now for this weekend but will be something that will
need to be monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Synoptically, the ridge that has been in place the past few days is
likely to stay nearly stationary over the next week. Throughout the
week, Guidance is showing there a few shortwave troughs that will
move through the region.

Monday looks to be the hottest day of the week with highs reaching
the low 100s. The highest temperatures that could be seen are 105-
107 degrees. These temperatures look to remain east of KS Hwy 27.
Due to these high temperatures a Heat Advisory is in place for all
of the Kansas and Nebraska Counties at this time. Winds look to
mainly remain from the north-northeast with gusts up to 20-25 kts.

There are some precipation chances on Monday afternoon/evening.
Looking at PoPs there is a 30-45% for the majority of the County
Warning Area (CWA). Looking at Guidance, there does seem to be a
shortwave and a boundary that will move in from the north and
continue south. However some disagreement on the boundary itself.
The ECMWF and Canadian both have the boundary, but the GFS does not.
As for Precipitation there is agreement with the NBM and LREF that
there is a 20-30% chance of exceeding 0.10" of precipation, for Yuma
County in Colorado. Looking at ingredients needed for severe storms
there are some indications there could be storms but on the marginal
side.


Moving to the rest of the week, starting Tuesday temperatures begin
to "cool" down to the high 90s. Precipitation chances return again
in the afternoon and evening with PoP`s reaching up to 60% in Yuma
County, in Colorado. For the majority of the rest of the CWA there
is values in the 20-40% range. For the extended part of the week,
the highs still remain in the 90s, with the exception of Thursday
highs cool down to the high 80s and low 90s. PoPs each day hangout
around 20-40% for the majority of the CWA. One feature to keep an
eye on is on Thursday there looks to be a shortwave with an
associated surface low that could bring more weather chances.
However, given this is almost a week out a lot can change.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

For KGLD, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period. Skies will be clear and winds will be light and variable.
Winds will start off from out of the northeast and sweep to out of
the southwest until around 16Z until they switch to more out of the
southeast.

For KMCK, VFR conditions are expected to prevail until around 10Z
when dense fog will be possible resulting in at least IFR
conditions. Fog is expected to clear out after 16Z. Winds will be
light and variable until 19Z when they shift to primarily out of the
southeast with speeds up to 15 knots possible through the
remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Saturday to 9 PM MDT
     /10 PM CDT/ Monday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...None.
NE...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Saturday to 9 PM MDT
     /10 PM CDT/ Monday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...Trigg/Rhoades