Holdrege, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

846
FXUS63 KGLD 072103
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
303 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday with
  development along a dry line in Colorado. Supercells will be
  possible capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and
  a tornado or two.

- A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday with
  damaging winds and blowing dust the main hazards.

- Temperatures may reach the 100-105 range Tuesday and
  Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be in place as
  well with a Fire Weather Watch issued for Colorado and
  adjacent Kansas counties for Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Shortwave trough rotating around a closed low in Alberta will
trigger isolated convection this afternoon along the Colorado
Front Range and the lee trough in the eastern plains. Some of
these may into Kit Carson and Yuma counties late this afternoon
and early evening before dissipating. Locally strong wind gusts
of up to 50 mph will be possible. Tonight, low clouds will move
in from the southeast overnight and into Monday morning. Any fog
chances look to be very isolated.

On Monday, southwest flow continues between a ridge in the
southern plains and the upper low in Canada. There appears to
be another weak embedded wave in the afternoon that provides at
least some synoptic scale lift. HRRR has joined the RRFS in
depicting a dry line across Colorado that by mid afternoon will
be located roughly across Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties
northwest to near Fort Morgan. 3-km NAM still depicting the dry
line much further west all the way to the Front Range. HRRR/RRFS
initiate convection along the dry line around 21z which will
move northeast into an environment that will be moderately
unstable with 2000-3000 j/kg of SBCAPE and 0-6 km shear of 40
kts. Both models show discrete supercells that will be capable
of producing large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or
two through the early evening hours. Coverage may be somewhat
limited due to the weak overall forcing. Storms move northeast
and out of the area after 03z with just a few lingering showers
or weaker thunderstorms through 06z.

On Tuesday, will continue with the same pattern with southwest
flow but a broader trough moving into the northern Rockies in
the afternoon with accompanying falling heights into Colorado
and western Kansas. At the surface, southwest winds will push
the dry line east to roughly a McCook to Hill City line by 00z
as depicted by the RRFS. The better instability will be further
east in north central Kansas, but weaker instability will be
present near the dry line, then rapidly dropping off west in the
dry air. Deep layer shear will be weaker than Monday at around
30 kts. Models do show scattered afternoon convection developing
in the dry air with the approaching trough. This area will be
very hot with temperatures near 100 and inverted-v soundings
yielding DCAPE of 2500-3000 j/kg. Not surprisingly, 3-km NAM
shows wind gusts of 55-65 kts with these storms. In addition to
the damaging wind threat, may also have blowing dust and
localized dust storms with the dry conditions. Storms move east
and out of the area after 03z.

The hot and dry conditions on Tuesday will combine with gusty
southwest winds and dry fuels for a risk of critical fire
weather conditions in northeast Colorado and adjacent counties
in northwest Kansas. Could see those conditions extending
another column of counties east eventually, but presently that
is where the highest confidence is at for a Fire Weather Watch.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

***Synopsis***

Broad troughing at 500-mb looks to be moving in overhead Wednesday
morning, with several shortwave troughs embedded in the larger
feature. These shortwave features would each have their own
attendant surface low pressure. A weak cold front looks to be
traversing the forecast area Wednesday morning, before the second
shortwave passes Wednesday evening to provide a stronger cold front.
Northerly winds may persist on Thursday through the afternoon hours.
Forecast guidance begins to diverge a bit more by Friday, as GEFS
amd EC members are about evenly split on whether a surface high or
low will be in place across the Central High Plains. GEFS and EC 500-
mb mean spread guidance does suggest that another trough may be
slowly moving south-southeastward out of Southwest Canada beginning
Friday, which may support the low a bit more. However, even if the
surface low is able to form, the exact location is uncertain, which
could influence our weather as well.


***Wednesday/Thursday***

High temperatures are forecast to lower a bit Wednesday, but are
still in the 90s across the County Warning Area (CWA). Hot
conditions in addition to northwesterly to westerly surface flow
throughout the day would promote dry conditions, with relative
humidities (RH) in the low to mid teens. Critical fire weather
conditions may be in place Wednesday afternoon, with forecast wind
gusts as high as 30 mph. The greatest risk appears to be across
Eastern Colorado, where LREF guidance shows a 40% chance or greater
for RH values to meet criteria for the hazard, alongside NBM
guidance which suggests a 50% chance or greater for wind gusts to
meet criteria. These probabilities may reach as high as an 85%
chance for RH and 90% chance for wind gusts in far western
portions of Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne Counties in Colorado.
Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed on Wednesday has
decreased a bit, but is still around 15-20% for these Eastern
Colorado Counties.

As northerly winds look to persist on Thursday, highs are forecast
to drop further into the 80s. However, dry conditions are favored to
remain, with RH values in the low to mid-teens again. Wind gusts are
forecast to weaken throughout the day Thursday, but could still be
capable of 25-30 mph in some areas, particularly in Eastern
Colorado. This zone still has a 1 in 3 chance or greater that wind
gusts meet criteria for critical fire weather during the early
afternoon hours, and as high as a 80% chance for Northwest Yuma
County. Still, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed
Thursday is only around 5% or so since wind gusts are forecast to
weaken through the afternoon, and not meet the 3-hr duration for the
warning.


***Friday-Sunday***

Again, model guidance begins to diverge by Friday afternoon, with
uncertainty in whether a surface high or surface low will be present
across the Central High Plains. NBM 75th-25th percentile spread in
maximum temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees on Friday, and 10 to 20
degrees on Saturday, with 75th percentile values in the 100s both
days in some locations. This would be more in line with solutions
showing a surface low near the CWA, establishing southerly flow
across the area. This solution may also be associated with
precipitation. NBM 48-hr precipitation guidance suggests that
activity between Friday and Saturday combined has up to a 50% chance
for greater than 0.1 inches to fall. This activity may be associated
with showers and thunderstorms, as LREF guidance suggests anywhere
from a few hundred to a few thousand J/kg of CAPE (a measure of
instability) to be present. Thunderstorms in this scenario could
become severe if LREF 75th percentile or greater 500-mb winds can be
experienced (35 kts or greater). Otherwise, storms would likely be
weaker in nature.

If the surface high is allowed to form, temperatures could fall as
low as the upper 70s Friday and Saturday. Precipitation may also be
lacking under this scenario. While GEFS and EC members are split on
which scenario occurs, GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance
shows a trough approaching the forecast area from the northwest,
which could slightly favor the solution with the surface low
setting up near our area. Going into Sunday, cooler conditions
appear more likely regardless of which scenario occurs, as the
high either remains in place or the low moves off to the south,
allowing a cold front to cross the area. Sunday`s highs are
currently forecast in the 70s and lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Gusty southeast surface winds up to 30 kts this
afternoon will diminish around sunset.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for KSZ001-013-027.
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for COZ252>254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...024