Holdrege, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

691
FXUS63 KGLD 060533
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1033 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 10-20% chance for a short period of light snow north of
  Highway 36 (mainly southwest Nebraska) around sunrise Saturday
  morning. No accumulation/impacts expected at this time.

- NW winds may gust as high as 40-50 mph for a few hours
  Saturday afternoon.

- Similar weather pattern continues next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 138 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

Latest upper air analysis shows a trough over the Great Lakes
region and a ridge over the West Coast. Northwest flow was
present between the two features. Within the flow a short wave
trough was progressing southward over the High Plains. This
shallow trough has led to sprinkles occurring over Northeast CO.

For the rest of today the sprinkles may continue over the
northwest part of the forecast area as the upper level short
wave trough continues to move southward. The sprinkles will end
this afternoon as the trough shifts more south of the forecast
area and subsidence moves in. Meanwhile the breezy winds will
become light as temperatures cool with the setting sun later
this afternoon.

Tonight winds will be light and variable as a surface high
pressure moves through. Before sunrise winds will become from
the southwest behind the exiting high pressure.

Saturday another subtle upper level short wave trough will move
through over the forecast area, with a surface trough moving
through at the surface. Winds will turn to the northwest behind
the trough. Low level winds will be rather strong behind the
trough. Most of the day there will be an inversion present over
atleast the east half or so of the forecast area. This will
prevent the stronger winds from reaching the ground until after
3 PM local time or so when the inversion erodes; this may result
in a hour or two of the strongest winds for the day before
winds decline. The strongest winds look to be over East Central
CO where the inversion will erode away the soonest; late
morning.

Looking at wind gust potential, the maximum speed is around 65
MPH for East Central CO. The maximum speed declines to under 50
MPH moving east of the CO/KS border. However, have less than 10%
confidence these winds will occur. The most likely speeds seem
to be in the 45-50 MPH range for East Central CO. Elsewhere to
the east the winds of similar magnitude are higher about the
ground. This would require the winds to mix deeper to reach
similar speeds. As such confidence is 20% or less for the 50 MPH
gusts to extend into KS and Nebraska beyond Highway 27.

Shifting to precipitation chances, cloud bases should be lower
than today, around 4k ft. AGL. There will be some isentropic
lift and frontogenesis with the trough passage over the northern
part of the forecast are in the morning. Model consensus keeps
any precipitation chances north of the forecast area. However,
given the lower cloud bases, frontogenesis, and isentropic lift,
can`t rule out a small chance for precipitation occurring.
Model consensus data did show the potential for freezing rain
over the northeast part of the forecast area during the morning.
However, am thinking that is due to different models in the
consensus ending the precipitation at different times, or not
having any precipitation present as this was not supported by
soundings showing ice in the clouds and probability of ice
accumulations being zero.

Saturday night a cold front will move through the forecast area
as winds turn more to be from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

This part of the forecast continues to be similar to the short
term; numerous small scale upper level short wave troughs moving
through over the forecast area. As each day nears there will
likely be additional short wave troughs appear in the northwest
flow over the forecast area that have not yet been resolved by
the models.

Models continue to warm Tuesday`s high temperatures. This is
ahead of a stronger upper level trough that will move through
mid week.

The most pronounced upper level short wave trough for the week
is forecast to move through mid week. The current track of this
trough keeps it mostly north of the forecast area. Current model
ensemble forecasts for precipitation keep the precipitation
north of the forecast area.

Beyond midweek there begins to be more of a difference in the
timing of the upper level short wave troughs moving through the
flow. Toward the end of the workweek the upper level ridge that
has been over the West Coast strengthens further, pushing the
jet stream further to the northeast of the forecast area. This
should allow for warmer, drier weather. With a rather strong
ridge dominating the weather pattern, a strong low pressure
system will be needed to overcome the ridge. Looking at long
range model data, a strong trough may not happen until the next
week or two. Until then the weather pattern should change very
little from what we have had.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

GLD: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period, with ceilings confined at or above ~8,000 ft AGL. WSW to
SW winds at ~10-15 knots Sat morning will shift to the NW and
increase to ~20-25 knots w/gusts to ~35 knots around noon
(~18-19Z).. breeziest during the early afternoon. Winds will
veer to the NNW and decrease to 15-25 knots by late afternoon..
further veering to the N and decreasing to 10-15 knots around,
or shortly before, sunset Sat evening.

MCK: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period, with ceilings confined at or above ~6,000 ft AGL. W to
SW winds at ~7-12 knots (tonight and Sat morning) will increase
to 12-17 knots late Sat morning (~17Z).. then shift to the NW
and increase to ~15-20 knots w/gusts to ~30 knots during the
early afternoon (~19Z). Winds will veer to the NNW and decrease
to 10-15 knots around, or shortly before, sunset Sat evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...Vincent